Silver's Big Canadian Breakout: Why 2025 May Be Only the Beginning of a Wild, Wealth-Changing Ride
Suppose you've been following the silver market this year. In that case, you might feel like you're watching a Toronto Blue Jays playoff game: the highs are unbelievable, the swings are dramatic, and every once in a while, you question whether what you're seeing is actually real.
Silver is winning, and this may be its World Series victory.
In fact, it's blowing past almost everything else on the field: equities, crypto, ETFs, gold's already-massive run. You name it, silver has outperformed it. And based on what we're seeing, this ride is far from over.
The next six months could make 2025 one of the most consequential years for silver in modern financial history, with gains approaching 71% year-to-date, with more than a month left to go!
And here's the kicker:
It's not hype.
It's not retail frenzy.
It's not Reddit.
It's structural. It's global. And it's absolutely bullish.
Let's break it down in plain Canadian terms.
Canada Is Quietly Slipping Into Recession, and Silver Loves Recession, anytime, anywhere.
We've been saying it for over a year: Canada is in recessionary territory, whether Ottawa wants to admit it or not.
- GDP per capita has fallen for nearly two years straight
- GDP growth has been negative in 2, and maybe more, quarters
- Household debt levels are now the highest among G7 nations
- Business investment has collapsed
- Immigration-driven population growth is masking economic contraction
- Consumers are tapped out, and interest rates, even with cuts, are still squeezing hard
When you're running a country where your population grows but your productivity doesn't, you're not expanding, you're diluting.
And in that environment, Canadians are quietly doing something brilliant:
Rotating out of paper assets and into physical ones.
Which is precisely what this moment demands.
With silver's insane industrial utility, its explosive investment demand, and its supply deficit rewriting the rulebook, silver is becoming the ultimate Canadian recession hedge.
A Fifth Straight Global Silver Deficit, and a Big One
Metals Focus, the top analytics firm in the sector, has called 2025 a "dramatic year."
Their words, not mine.
Why? Because for the fifth year in a row, the world is consuming more silver than mines can produce.
And this time the gap is enormous.
2025 Projected Silver Deficit:
➡️ 95 million ounces
Five-Year Cumulative Deficit:
➡️ 820 million ounces (basically an entire year of global mine production)
Since 2010:
➡️ 580 million ounces drained from above-ground stockpiles to the point that there now exists no readily available above-ground stockpile
Imagine the oil market running a multi-year deficit with inventories plunging every single year. Headlines would be screaming. Yet silver does precisely that and still trades like it's the forgotten metal in the periodic table.
But investors are waking up, really fast.
Industrial Demand: Still Near Record Highs Despite the Price Surge
Even with silver approaching all-time highs, hitting $54.48 USD already this year, industrial demand is holding near historic records.
Why?
Because, unlike gold, silver isn't just money. It's everything.
- Solar panels
- EV batteries
- AI server farms
- High-efficiency electronics
- Medical tech
- Electric infrastructure
- TVs
- Computers
- Tablets
- Water purification
- Topical solutions for speeding recovery in skin wounds and in bandages
- Military applications
- Switches and electronic contacts
- Washers and dryers
- 5G infrastructure
- Cars, trucks, planes, and many other vehicle types
- And yes, even the chips that keep your phone from overheating when you watch too much YouTube
2025's mild pullback in industrial use (-2%) is nothing more than companies adjusting for price. The real story is that industrial demand is still the second-highest in history and, for the most part, remains inelastic. Dell is not going to wake up tomorrow and stop making laptops and computers because the price of silver rose to $100 an ounce. They will make adjustments accordingly because the alternatives remain far more expensive.
Pro-Tip -> As PV (solar) share grows globally and Canada races to meet its emissions targets, silver remains the irreplaceable metal in the clean-energy supply chain.
ETPs & ETFs Are Quietly Hoovering Up Silver — But Let's Keep Perspective
This surge is impressive, no question. ETP silver holdings are up 18% this year. The value of those holdings? Up a ridiculous 97%. That's institutional money stepping in with both fists and yelling:
"This silver shortage is real, and it's not going away."
But here's the part most investors miss: This crowd of folks overwhelmingly believes in paper. They trust tickers, not tonnage. They buy the promise, not the product. And the uncomfortable truth? Paper burns.
ETPs don't pull metal out of vaults the same way you do when you hold physical. They don't erase counterparty risk. They don't shield you from liquidity squeezes. And when the music stops, paper investors discover very quickly whether their claim on metal is actually backed by anything more than a keyboard entry.
So yes—this rush into ETFs is impressive to watch. But the smart move is still, and always will be, to own the silver, not the slip.
Silver Mines Aren't Saving Us Anytime Soon
Some investors assume higher prices = more mine production.
Not this time.
- 2025 mine output estimate: 813 million ounces
- That's basically flat
- Production peaked in 2016
- Mines have declined an average of 1.4% per year since then
Silver isn't like gold, where a higher spot price suddenly makes a dozen new mines viable.
Silver is a byproduct metal. Nearly 80% of it comes from copper, zinc, and lead mines. That means even if silver hits $100, miners won't dramatically increase production unless base metal demand surges too.
Translation: We're stuck with what we've got. And what we've got isn't enough.
Why This All Points to a Wild Six Months Ahead
When you mix:
- multi-year structural deficits
- record industrial demand
- investment surges
- Physical accumulation
- mine stagnation
- shrinking above-ground stockpiles
- geopolitical risk
- tariff chaos
- and a Canadian economy that desperately needs hard-asset protection
You don't get a quiet market. You get a slingshot. And we're already seeing the tension build.
Silver is up ~74% year-to-date, and the underlying market pressures haven't even eased. They've intensified.
This uncertainty about supply is why the United States Geological Survey (USGS), Metals Focus, and prominent institutional analysts are beginning to agree:
The silver bull run isn't peaking, it's just getting warmed up.
At Delta Harbour, we've said since Q1 that 2025 had the potential to be a monster year for silver. What we're looking at now isn't a "nice little rally." It's a structural revaluation.
Our Take: The Best Is Yet to Come
Based on everything we're seeing, and everything Metals Focus, the Silver Institute, and global data confirm, Delta Harbour's position is simple:
➡️ We believe silver will continue to outperform for the next 6–12 months
➡️ We expect silver volatility (both ways), but with a firm upward trajectory
➡️ We anticipate the market is on pace for near-100% annual gains
➡️ We see no near-term catalyst that solves the supply deficit
Put simply:
If you think silver has already had its big year, buckle up. The real show starts now.
With a grain of salt, it is easy for me to say these things, having been here for over 21 years, so always consult those you trust. Talk to your advisors, planners, money people in your life that matter to you and might have an opinion on the topic. But never let them dismiss this as something not worth being part of. Never let them put it down. Never let them talk negatively about a metal and returns that have indeed made many people happy. It may not be for everyone, and you should never invest money that you cannot afford to lose, but for those capable of doing so, it might be time to run, not walk, to Delta Harbour.
For our Canadian investors looking for defensive positioning, physical ownership, and proper wealth insurance, this moment might be the most critical window of the decade.
And yes, for those wondering, contemplating, or allowing brain cells to spend time in the imaginative state, one hell of a ride is precisely what we expect.
Yours to the penny,
Darren V. Long
